This page is normally updated by 10am
Monday-Saturday. Please click "Reload" (Netscape) or "Refresh" (Explorer) to
ensure you have the latest text!
How to read: Forecast is for the Eastern Caribbean, with emphasis on the British Virgin
Islands. Wind forecast includes Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands (Anguilla to Dominica) and Windward Islands (Martinique to Grenada).
Wind direction and speed are given as a compass
direction, in degrees True (090 is East), "@" sign, followed by a number
designating the average sustained wind speed forecast. Forecast should be
"bracketed" by you...for example, a forecast for 090@16
means you should expect sustained winds between 080-100 at between 14-18 kts.
No satellite wind data...but last evening's data shows squalls to 30-40k many
areas S of 15N. There was a large area of light wind & mostly squall-free, from
62W-67W btwn Venezuela and 13N. Strong NNE@20-30 almost all of DomRep's N
Coast, but not the NE tip. Also light wind PuertoRico & VirginIslands &
Leewards.
IMAGERY:
Squalls, some to 30-40k, lie in many of the same areas this morning...from
Trinidad-Tobago area to just S of Barbados, extending to 57W...then along a
narrower band 62W-66W, mostly near 13N-14N (thru Grenadines to Martinique, but
not much activity Grenada S-ward or Dominica N-ward)...expanding in coverage W
of 66W to 70W, from just off Venezuela to 15N.
Squalls along DomRep may run to 30k, especially E Part. Otherwise Leewards &
VirginIslands & PuertoRico seeing isolated mostly morning activity with wind
5-10k above gradient wind conditions, and no deep convection.
SYNOPSIS:
Today...FrontalTROF from MonaPasssage area ENE. Atlantic RIDGE lies only E of
60W along 22N, with only light wind along N Caribbean from PuertoRico into
Leewards, but a bit stronger E wind along S Caribbean. TROF/ITCZ persists along
S Caribbean near 13N-14N, with strong squalls...light wind in a few squall-free
areas S of ITCZ.
Tomorrow...Little change...ITCZ/TROF may shift N, with strongest squalls
14N-16N, but still extending S-ward to Venezuela & ABCs W of about 66W & also
thru Windwards & Barbados to Trinidad & Tobago. ENE-E wind along
PuertoRico-Leewards may increase some as FrontalTROF weakens DomRep ENE-ward.
Sat22...Overall trend of strengthening Trades continues...ITCZ/TROF may shift S
again, to along 12N-14N, with more & stronger squalls from 60W-72W, and some
activity in adjacent areas. Reinforcing FrontalTROF from SE Bahamas ENE-ward,
and old FrontalTROF from about PuertoRico ENE. ENE-E Trades increase toward 20k
most areas.
Sun23...TROF/ITCZ should shift W of SE Caribbean, with milder ENE@15, but
squalls persist W of 65W thru ABCs. Unsettled conditions persist along N
Caribbean with 15-20k & some squalls with FrontalTROF somewhere near DomRep ENE.
Mon24...FrontalTROF may press into waters from PuertoRico ENE, with 20-25k
DomRep, but only 20k along rest of N Caribbean, and somewhat-less S
Caribbean...squalls end even in ABCs.
OUTLOOK:
Significant change to the overall pattern next week...as systems finally begin
moving...HI/RIDGE exits US Mon24, weakens near Bermuda Tue25 & nearly dissipates
NE of Caribbean Wed26...as ColdFRONT stalls from DomRep to just S&E of Bermuda,
with lighter NE-E wind throughout E Caribbean, except NW DomRep...and these
relatively-milder conditions persist thru the week.
Next weekend, stronger HI moves into W Atlantic, and, with persistent TROF from
Azores area to just E of Caribbean, supports NE@20+/- in E Caribbean, higher in
squalls which may return.
F'cst:
Precip:
Trinidad area: scattered squalls to 35k thru tomorrow, isolated over weekend,
then mostly dry.
Windwards: scattered squalls to 35k thru Sun23 morning, but decreasing to
isolated from StLucia N-ward tomorrow night...then mostly dry.
Leewards: only isolated mostly-morning showers & mild squalls with 5-10k
enhanced wind.
VirginIslands & PuertoRico: similar, but more coverage of showers & squalls
Sun23 & Mon24 due to FrontalTROF.
DomRep: squalls to 30-35k thru Sun23 or Mon24, then decreasing.
Venezuela E of 66W: periods of showers & some squalls to 25-35k, especially
tomorrow night into Sun23 morning.
ABCs to 66W: scattered showers & squalls to 35k thru Sun23 or Mon24, then
isolated milder activity.
WIND (NOTE: see Precip for wind in squalls):
Windwards (and waters toward Trinidad): 100@16 today; 080@16 tomorow; 070@18
Sat22; 060@17 Sun23 & Mon24. N Part may be 2-3k higher tonight onward.
Leewards: 080@12 building to 17k today, 18k tomorrow; 070@18 building to 20k &
gusty Sat22; 060@20 Sun23; 050@17-20 & gusty Mon24.
VirginIslands: 070@11 building to 16k today; 080@17 tomorrow; 070@18 tomorrow
night & Sat22, 20k Sat22 night; 060@18 Sun23; 045@17 building to 22k Mon24.
W PuertoRico & Mona & E DomRep: NE@12-15 today; ENE@15 tonight into Sat22
morning; 060@20 Sat22; NE@15 Sun23; NE@20 Mon24.
NW DomRep: NNE@20 today; ENE@12 tomorrow, 18k Sat22 & Sun23, 25k late Sun23 &
Mon24.
Venezuela: 100@10 building to 14k today into tomorrow morning; 090@16 late
tomorrow; 100@16 Sat22; 080@17 Sat22 night & Sun23; 060-080@16-18 Mon24.
ABCs: E@14 thru tomorrow, 18k late tomorrow; 080@20 Sat22, 18k Sun23 & Mon24.
SEAS:
SE Caribbean: Combined wind-chop/swell from ENE-E 6'/8-sec today & tomorrow;
7-8'/7-sec Sat22 into Sun23 morning, 6'/6-7 sec Mon24. NNW swell builds
tomorrow, peaks 7-8'/11-sec tomorrow night & Sat22, 7' from N Sun23, 6' Mon24,
decreasing, but rebuilding later.
NE Caribbean: Combined wind-chop/swell from NE-E 6'/8-sec today, 7'/6-8 sec
tomorow onward. NNW swell builds late today, peaks 11'/12-sec tomorrow, 9'
Sat22, 8' from N Sun23, rebuilding to 9' Mon24, higher from NNE thereafter.
DomRep: N swell peaks 11'/12-sec today, 10' decreasing to 8-9' tomorrow, 8'
Sat22; 9'/6-sec from NE-ENE Sun23, 10' Mon24; NNE swell increasing to 11'/10-sec
Mon24.
Venezuela: 4'/4-7 sec from NE-E today; 5-6'/5-6 sec from ENE-E tomorrow, 6'
tomorrow night thru Sun23, 5-6' Mon24. N swell may reach 6'/12-sec tomorrow
night thru Sun23.
ABCs: 5'/5-sec from ENE into tomorow, 6' late, 8'/6-7 sec tomorrow night &
Sat22, 7' Sun23 & Mon24.
