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How to read: Forecast is for the Eastern Caribbean, with emphasis on the British Virgin
Islands. Wind forecast includes Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands (Anguilla to Dominica) and Windward Islands (Martinique to Grenada).
Wind direction and speed are given as a compass
direction, in degrees True (090 is East), "@" sign, followed by a number
designating the average sustained wind speed forecast. Forecast should be
"bracketed" by you...for example, a forecast for 090@16
means you should expect sustained winds between 080-100 at between 14-18 kts.
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Wx Update, E Caribbean, Fri3, 9a
Low-res graphical QuickScat at 7am: ABCs 070-090@16-23, highest W / Venezuela
060-080@10-20, but 20-30k in squalls E of 64W / SE Caribbean 070@20-30 in
squalls / Leewards 070@16-22 / VirginIslands & PuertoRico 080-090@12-17 / DomRep
090-110@11-18, highest NW Part. I believe some squalls not sampled near WAVE
approaching SE Caribbean may be 40k-or-so!
IMAGERY:
Martinique RADAR shows severe squalls btwn Barbados & Tobago, approaching S
Windwards (strongest cells should pass from just S of StVincent to well S of
Grenada thru this afternoon). Bands of squalls extend across Dominica,
approaching Guadeloupe, and also approaching Antigua & Montserrat.
Satellite imagery shows moderately-strong squalls from 66W in the area from
VenezuelanCoast to 11N, E-ward in waters S of 12N to 63W, then expanding in
coverage from 8N thru S Windwards, with scattered lesser squalls as far N as S
Leewards as described above...and strong squalls continuing E to 55W from
10N-13N.
SYNOPSIS:
WAVEs:
I'm dumbfounded that NOAA's 8am analysis this morning places the WAVE hammering
the SE Caribbean at 53W. UofWisc vorticity analysis shows vorticity-maximum
9N/62W...14N/59W. Infared satellite imagery shows strongest squalls farthest N,
with a hint of cyclonic turning near 58W-59W at 13N. WAVE is clearly from about
13N/59W to 9N/61W-62W. Skies near 53W are fair, and pressure at buoy 14N/56W
have begun rising...WAVE is moving W@15-20.
Next WAVE NOAA places at 33W-34W...but Vorticity-max lies along 44W,
farthest-N-extent of Vorticity is 20N/41W, broad cyclonic turning is evident on
infared satellite imagery from 35W-50W, farthest-N-extent of squalls in ITCZ is
11N/39W. My analysis suggests WAVE lies between 40W-45W...and, based on the
predicted NW-SE-tilt to WAVE, I'd place WAVE along the line 20N/44W...5N/37W,
moving W@20...will
impact Leewards tomorrow evening into Sun5 / VirginIslands & PuertoRico & SE
Caribbean early Sun5 / DomRep Sun5 night into Mon6.
Subsequent WAVEs Tue7-Wed8 and Sun12 should be weak, but WAVE Tue14-Wed15
stronger.
* *
MEANWHILE...
Sub-Tropical RIDGE peaks today, gradually weakens thru Tue7, then gradually
strengthens. E Caribbean Trades respond likewise, except for periods of strong
wind in squalls with WAVEs, as detailed above & below.
S Caribbean may see some moderation of wind & seas as the NW Part of WAVE#2
passes N of your location tomorrow into Sun5 morning, but today's squalls may
persist in some areas well into tomorrow, and seas may not moderate much till
late tomorrow...so there may only be a brief opportunity for milder weather late
tomorrow afternoon into evening.
Mon6 may be a transition day, with drier weather but wind & seas still
moderately-high...but Tue7 looks good in spite of what may be a weak WAVE, and
Wed8 could be nice if it's not squally.
F'cst:
Precip:
Trinidad: periods of squalls, some to 30-40k today; only isolated activity
tomorrow, but more scattered squalls Sun5; isolated Mon6, scattered thereafter.
Windwards: widespread squalls today, some to 40k-or-so, greatest coverage of
strongest cells S of StVincent, some lingering activity thru Noon tomorrow, only
isolated activity afternoon thru evening, but a few scattered 30k squalls
overnight thru Sun5; mostly dry Mon6 into Tue7 morning, then a few scattered
30-35k squalls late Tue7 onward.
Leewards: isolated squalls to 30k today & tonight; mostly dry tomorrow, but
scattered-to-numerous squalls to 35k late tomorrow afternoon into mid-day Sun5
with 2nd TropicalWAVE; mostly dry with only isolated showers & squalls to 30k
late Sun5 onward.
VirginIslands & PuertoRico: similar, but squalls only increase in coverage
gradually tomorrow evening, with most activity Sun5 & Sun5 night.
DomRep: isolated squalls to 30k-or-so anytime, but more squalls late Sun5 into
Mon6 with 2nd WAVE.
Venezuela: squalls to 35k-or-so today, spreading W-ward, decreasing to isolated
in coverage tonight E of 65W / tomorrow morning W of 65W.
ABCs: scattered squalls to 35k-or-so tonight thru most of tomorrow, then only
isolated activity mornings.
WIND (for wind in squalls see Precip):
Windwards (waters toward Trinidad subtract 2-4k except no difference Mon6):
becoming 090@20G25 today; 080@15 tomorrow; 110@19G24 Sun5; 080-deg Mon6; 100@15
Tue7...NIGHTs add 2k.
Leewards: 080@18G21 today; 070@21G26 late into tomorrow; 060@22G27 late
tomorrow; 120@20-25 tomorrow night into Sun5, 20k late Sun5; 080@15 Mon6, 14k
Tue7...NIGHTs add 2k.
VirginIslands: 080@15 today; 070@19 this afternoon, 18k tomorrow morning;
060@22G27 afternoon; 120@20 Sun5; 090@15 Mon6; 080@13 Tue7...NIGHTs add 2k.
DomRep: ESE@14 today; becoming E@16 tomorrow afternoon into Sun5, 20k later
Sun5; SE Mon6; ESE@13 Tue7.
Venezuela: 080@20 today, gusting 25k late into tomorrow; 15k late tomorrow;
120@14 Sun5 morning, 18k late into Mon6; 080@21G25 Mon6 night & Tue7.
ABCs: 090@21G26 today, 23G28k tonight into tomorrow, 18G22k late tomorrow into
Sun5; 110@22G26 late Sun5 onward...Aruba N&W may run 3-5k higher.
SEAS:
SE Caribbean: building to 10'/7-sec from E today; 8'/8-sec tomorrow morning, 7'
late, 6-7' tomorrow night, 7-sec Sun5 & Mon6; 6'/8-sec Tue7.
NE Caribbean: building from 6'/6-sec to 7' today; 8'/8-sec tomorrow into Sun5,
7-8' late, 6' Mon6, 5' Tue7.
DomRep: 4'/5-sec from E today, 4-5' tomorrow, 5' tomorrow night, building to
6'/6-sec Sun5; 7'/7-sec Sun5 night & Mon6; 5'/8-sec Tue7, 4' late.
Venezuela: building from 6-7'/6-sec from E today to 8-9'/7-sec late into
tomorrow, 7' tomorrow afternoon, 6' tomorrow night, 5' Sun5; 6-7'/6-sec Mon6;
7-8' Tue7.
ABCs: 8'/7-sec from E today, 10'/8-sec tonight & tomorrow, 7'/7-sec Sun5; 9'
Mon6 onward.
